Transport demand in futures with artificial general intelligence

In this paper Stefan Flügel and Paal B. Wangsness from the Institute of Transport Economics discuss how artificial general intelligence (AGI) can affect society, labour market and transport needs, with particular focus on Norway. The authors argue that current transport planning must more broadly take into account technological breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI). AGI, which denotes systems that can perform a wide range of tasks on par with or better than humans, is expected to have major implications for both economic growth and social welfare.

The authors present 32 future scenarios. These vary with respect to global economic growth, international level of conflict, whether KI replaces or complements labour, the degree of regulation and the degree of redistribution. The results show that Norwegians' welfare can increase significantly in some scenarios, but also fall dramatically in others — especially if AGI leads to mass unemployment without sufficient redistribution.

Furthermore, transportation demand is modeled in 12 scenarios based on three drivers: welfare, labor participation, and leisure preferences. The effect of autonomous vehicles is also introduced as an uncertain but central factor.

The authors conclude that although there is great uncertainty related to the development of artificial intelligence and its impacts, transport planners should start analyzing such scenarios already now. They recommend establishing indicators to follow technological developments and designing flexible policy measures that promote the socially beneficial use of AI in the transport sector and limit negative effects such as queuing and pollution.

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