Better, but still too narrowly, Vedum

Recently lectured Trygve Slagsvold Vedum on security and prosperity development in an uncertain world at the University of Oslo. In the lecture, Vedum gave a taste of what the new perspective message will look like. The Perspective Report is issued by the Ministry of Finance every four years and is intended to discuss the biggest challenges for the Norwegian economy over the next 50 years. Historically, topics such as the elderly wave, oil money and unemployment have been central, and in recent years also climate.

But in Vedum's lecture, the focus was now on the implications of the new security situation in Europe. Finance minister's message of more resource use on preparedness received support in the leadership position in Dagbladet, and Torbjørn Røe Isaksen was left with the impression that Vedum 'may be our most intellectual finance minister in a long time. ' Vedum also has informed that preparedness will leave its mark on the 2024 state budget.

Global threats to the Norwegian economy

Vedum is right to raise his gaze and look beyond both Norway's borders and traditional socio-economic issues, but unfortunately he does not see far enough. A tense geopolitical situation is not the only international threat that will guide how the Norwegian economy looks over the next 50 years.

Within the field of study global threats considered risks from new technologies, such as biotechnology and artificial intelligence, among the most serious. These are factors that few economists — those who write the perspective reports — have expertise about, but which could have a huge impact on Norway over the next half century. Artificial intelligence will not only be able to automate away a variety of jobs and occupations, but could also be used for malicious purposes. This is especially true if a malicious actor manages to develop so-called general artificial intelligence (systems that are intelligent in a variety of domains, such as humans are).

Biotechnology is a less obvious example, but nonetheless important. While research into biotechnology has yielded amazing medical advances, it has also opened the doors to man-made weapons and pandemics far more dangerous than Covid-19. Biologist Kevin Esvelt at MIT contends that he, with a budget of only ten thousand kroner, could create a pandemic virus by ordering synthetic DNA in the mail. A future where many people can easily and cheaply create deadly viruses will have an impact on Norway's economy, whether we want it or not.

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Too narrow, and too short-term

Pandemic and war have laid the foundations for the Norwegian economy over the past three years without being mentioned in the perspective reports from 2017 and 2021, respectively. And in the 2021 message, possible future pandemics were not discussed even if one was in the middle of one. This is worrying and testifies to a too narrow perspective in the perspective messages.

Besides, the perspective is too short. Today's young people will live much more than 50 more years — the perspective that the perspective message normally has, and future generations will hopefully benefit from a good Norwegian economy for thousands of years. A longer time perspective would make it even more natural to refer to threats with lower probability but with enormous consequences, such as threats from new technologies.

It is uplifting to see that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is broadening his horizons and taking seriously the implications of the security policy situation in the world. But more threats must be included if the New Perspective Message is to fulfill its mandate, of analyzing those largest and long term Challenges for the Norwegian economy.