AI development, threats and Norwegian opportunities

AI technology is developing at an exceptional pace. The task complexity that KI systems can handle has since 2024 doubled approximately every four months, and no one has identified an upper limit on how well KI can perform. The next few years could bring three possible scenarios: 1) an intelligence explosion before 2030, 2) something equivalent to a new industrial revolution where we get human-level KI in the early 2030s, or 3) that KI evolves as a normal technology. The three scenarios present us with different risks, and even the least transformative scenario requires active action to ensure the nation's security and prosperity.

The rapid development creates serious security threats. KI can lower the threshold for bioweapons use among individuals and small groups. Leading KI nations can turn other countries into vassal states through technological superiority. Agenic KI, systems that act autonomously, can escape human control. More generally, KI advances can undermine established strategic doctrines in international politics such as mutually guaranteed destruction, accelerating the discovery of weapons of mass destruction, and intensifying conflicts over resources.

Norway should meet these challenges through strategic investments and institutional initiatives. We must strengthen our preparedness against drones, cyber attacks and biological threats, secure computing resources that make us relevant in global AI policy, and protect democracy from Ki-based threats. Specifically, we propose that Norway establish a national AI security institute, incorporate AI threats into DSB's crisis scenario analyses, invest in defensive technology, research and more computing power on Norwegian soil, and build strategic AI cooperation with allied countries such as the United Kingdom.

‍

Please note that the policy note is in Norwegian. Reach out to kontakt@langsikt.no to request an English version.