Input to the Standing Committee on Justice: Investing in the security dimension of emerging technologies

Langsikt appreciates the opportunity to provide input to the Standing Committee on Justice. Our comments pertain to Chapter 457, the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM); Chapter 444, the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST); and Chapter 400, the Ministry of Justice and Public Security.

Technological development and geopolitical instability are the two most significant drivers in a serious international security landscape, Finnish President Stubb stated at a NUPI seminar during his visit to Norway earlier in October. Given the serious security policy situation, Langsikt supports the government's prioritization of security and preparedness in this year's national budget, including the increase of 189 million NOK for the NSM and 250 million NOK for the PST. We particularly commend that this strengthening is intended to help address changes in the threat landscape and rapid technological development. To further bolster preparedness against threats from new technology, we recommend the following notes and proposals to the committee:

• Center for Emerging Technologies at the NSM: "Committee members from ... point out that the Norwegian National Security Authority established the Center for Applied Cryptology in 2023. These members believe a similar model should be considered for emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and synthetic biology, and request that the government return to the Storting with such an assessment."
• Early access to the most advanced AI models: We propose the following request: "The Storting requests that the government work to ensure that certified Norwegian professional and security agencies, such as the NSM, PST, and FFI, are granted early access to the most advanced AI models." Early access gives defenders a head start over attackers in developing countermeasures, for example in vaccine development and detection. These agreements should likely be negotiated in conjunction with other countries, such as the United Kingdom.
• Earmarking for emerging technologies: "Committee members from ... assume that parts of the strengthening of Chapter 457, Chapter 444, and Chapter 400 will be used for security work related to emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and synthetic biology, and that the funds will be allocated to threat intelligence, prevention, detection, and response."

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Background:

Leading researchers, technologists, and and politicians are expressing growing concern regarding the risks posed by advanced AI systems. On October 11, the Lancet Commission on Global Health Threats in the 21st Century was launched. Artificial intelligence is highlighted as one of two threats with existential potential. The commission estimates that Norwegians will lose 6.4 million preventable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the period 2025–2100 due to malicious AI use. While the estimate carries significant uncertainty, the level is twice as high as the health burden related to smoking. The fact that this health loss is preventable means that political choices made today will determine the scale of the loss.

The report highlights three ways in which AI can pose a threat, including AI used to design biological weapons. Naturally occurring pandemics are already among the greatest health threats we face, with a one-in-four probability of a new or worse COVID-19 within the next ten years. Technological development lowers the threshold for who can develop biological weapons and raises the ceiling for how dangerous biological agents can be created. We know which measures can reduce the risk from biological threats and can look to other countries for inspiration: the United Kingdom has, under its biosecurity strategy announced over £1.83 billion for a network of national biosecurity centers, wastewater surveillance, and respiratory metagenomics.

To address the threats posed by emerging technologies, it is crucial that they are treated as national security threats. We believe that investing an extra pound in defense against emerging technologies provides more expected utility than an extra pound in conventional defense. The G20 High-Level Independent Panel on Pandemic Financing (HLIP) recommends that countries like Norway spend a minimum of between 0.5 and 1 percent of their security and defense budgets annually on biosecurity and biological surveillance, which for Norway corresponds to approximately 1 - 2 billion NOK annually.  

About us

Langsikt is an independent, non-profit think tank for long-term policy. We bridge the gap between research and policy development to help ensure that society's resources are used where they do the most good. Our focus is on major global challenges such as artificial intelligence, pandemics, and extreme poverty. Read our policy brief on technology-driven biological threats for more information [https://www.langsikt.no/publikasjoner/teknologidrevne-biologiske-trusler]

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Lotte Skolem | Executive Director at Langsikt |lotte@langsikt.no

Anders Eidesvik | AI Advisor at Langsikt |anders@langsikt.no

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